02 — Capability · BC-610.10
Demand Forecasting
Produce a forecast of future demand that is good enough to buy and build against, and know how wrong it has been so the method improves.
- Demand Planning
- Statistical Forecasting
In scope
- Baseline statistical forecast by item and location
- Market and customer intelligence overlays
- Forecast accuracy and bias measurement
Out of scope
- Market research itself (see BC-410)
- Sales pipeline forecasting (see BC-430)
Realized by · 0
- No product in the catalog yet.
Used in · 1
Build it · 0
- Nothing in the library points here yet.
Decomposes into · 4
- BC-610.10.10Baseline Forecast GenerationGenerate a statistical forecast from history, seasonality and trend at the item, location and period grain the supply plan needs.
- BC-610.10.20Demand Sensing & EnrichmentAdjust the baseline with near-term signals such as orders in hand, promotions, weather and customer input before it becomes the committed number.
- BC-610.10.30Forecast Accuracy MeasurementMeasure error and bias at every level of the hierarchy and feed the result back into model choice and planner behavior.
- BC-610.10.40New Product & Phase-Out ForecastingForecast items that have no history yet and ramp down items that are leaving, using analogs and lifecycle curves rather than guesswork.